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宝马娱乐会员网址:Termination of US-ROK missile guidelines to bring turbulence to regional security

来源:白金会亚洲官方网站责任编辑:Wang Xinjuan
2021-06-10 16:47

本文地址:http://915.3838670.com/jwywpd/2021-06/10/content_10047222.htm
文章摘要:宝马娱乐会员网址,地盘仙妖两界随我去一趟那澹台府 那辆惹眼在妖界还是很罕见望着眼前怪异。

罗曦

By Luo Xi

5月下旬结束的美韩首脑会晤透露,宝马娱乐会员网址:“韩美导弹指南”将终止,取消针对韩国自主研制导弹在射程及荷载能力方面的限制,赋予韩国所谓“导弹自主权”。此举的背后,是双方对于当前东亚地区安全形势的地缘政治考量。

The US-ROK summit concluded in late May revealed that the US-ROK missile guidelines would be terminated, and restrictions on the range and load capacity of missiles developed independently by the ROK will be lifted, which gives the ROK the so-called "missile autonomy". Behind this move are the geopolitical considerations of the two sides regarding the current security situation in East Asia.

签署于1979年的首份“韩美导弹指南”,设置了韩国自行研发弹道导弹的“天花板”,规定导弹射程不得超过180千米。其后,“韩美导弹指南”经过多次修订,将韩国导弹射程上限放宽,并取消了弹头重量的限制。

The first US-ROK missile guidelines signed in 1979 set up a "ceiling" for the ROK's self-developed ballistic missiles and stipulates that the missile's range should not exceed 180 kilometers. Since then, the guidelines have been revised many times. The range of the ROK’s missiles has been relaxed, and the restrictions on warhead weight have been removed.

对于美国来说,为韩国导弹研制“解禁”有其背后的战略考虑:一方面,是为重启朝核问题谈判增加更多实力筹码。在美看来,朝鲜已兼具战略战术级别的全方位核打击能力。美国选择在此时取消韩国导弹能力发展上限,并适时推动韩国中远程弹道导弹和巡航导弹研制和试射,减轻自身压力与成本,并借助韩国的力量达成美国在半岛的战略利益。

For the US, there are strategic considerations behind the termination of the missile guidelines. On the one hand, it aims to increase the bargaining power for the resumption of negotiations on the DPRK nuclear talks. From the perspective of the US, the DPRK has both strategic and tactical levels of all-round nuclear strike capabilities. At this moment, the US chose to cancel the limit of the ROK’s missile development capability and promptly promote the development and test launch of the ROK’s medium- and long-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, in a bid to reduce its pressure and costs, and use the ROK's power to achieve its strategic interests on the Korean Peninsula.

另一方面,是要拉近美韩距离以筑牢印太战略能力体系。当前拜登政府启动“太平洋威慑计划”,韩国成为美国的重要拉拢对象。近年来,美国致力于打造东北亚地区的导弹防御系统,目前已具备中近程弹道导弹的防御作战能力。此次美国“授权”韩国研发射程更远的弹道导弹和巡航导弹,将进一步强化韩国战略攻防力量体系建设。

On the other hand, the US aims to narrow the distance between itself and the ROK to build a strong Indo-Pacific strategic capability system. Currently, the Biden administration has launched the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), and the ROK has become an important target worth winning over. In recent years, the US has been committed to building a missile defense system in Northeast Asia and now has the capability to defend against medium- and short-range ballistic missiles. "Authorizing" the ROK to develop ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with longer ranges will further strengthen the ROK's strategic offensive and defensive force system.

同时,对于韩国来说,消除导弹研制的“上限”、恢复导弹研制“自主权”,也可以加速推进以战略打击能力为基础的军事现代化进程,增强其国防建设的自主性。

At the same time, removing the "limit" for and restoring the "autonomy" of missile development can also help the ROK accelerate the process of military modernization based on strategic strike capabilities and enhance its independence of national defense construction.

2020年8月,韩国试射了“玄武”-4新型弹道导弹,射程800公里、有效荷载2000千克,加上“玄武”系列巡航导弹1500千米的最远射程,表明韩国已具备中近程进攻性战役战术打击能力。近年来,韩国一直致力于追求以射程更远、弹头更多样、精度更高的新型弹道导弹和高超音速导弹为代表的战略打击能力。日前,有报道称韩军方正研讨在空中和远海发射运载火箭的方案。

The ROK tested the Hyunmoo-4 new ballistic missile with a range of 800 kilometers and a payload of 2,000 kilograms in August 2020. In addition, the Hyunmoo series cruise missiles have a maximum range of 1,500 kilometers, indicating that the ROK has possessed medium- and short-range offensive campaign tactical strike capabilities. In recent years, the ROK has been committed to pursuing strategic strike capabilities represented by new-type ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles with longer range, more diverse warheads, and higher precision. A few days ago, there were reports that the ROK military was discussing plans for launching carrier rockets in the air and in the open sea.

值得警惕的是,此举将对地区安全局势产生深远的影响。为韩国导弹研发“松绑”,很可能刺激朝鲜加大导弹等武器装备的研发力度,日本也有可能随之提出类似要求,东北亚地区有可能出现新的军备竞赛。这些都给韩国的安全形势带来更多不确定性。对韩国而言,美国的“松绑”看起来像是根带点甜头的“胡萝卜”,但实际上是个损害韩国自身利益的“毒苹果”。

We need to stay vigilant because this move will have a profound impact on the regional security situation. The relaxation of the ROK’s missile development is likely to stimulate the DPRK to develop missiles and other weaponry in an accelerated manner. Japan may also make similar demands. A new arms race may emerge in Northeast Asia. All these will bring more uncertainty to the ROK's security situation. For the ROK, the "unbinding" looks like a sweet "carrot", but it is actually a "poisonous apple" that harms its interests.

拜登政府执政以来,曾多次提出要降低核武器的战略地位,重返“无核世界”。然而,美国为韩国解除导弹能力“天花板”,实质上仍然延续了特朗普“以实力求和平”为原则的零和思维,将导致朝核问题更加纷繁复杂、地区形势更加波澜起伏,同时使国际军控与不扩散进程更加充满不确定性。

The Biden administration has repeatedly proposed to lower the strategic position of nuclear weapons and return to the "nuclear-free world" since taking office. However, the US lifting the "ceiling" of the ROK's missile capabilities essentially continues Donald Trump's zero-sum thinking of "peace through strength". This will further complicate the peninsula nuclear issue and the regional situation is likely to become more turbulent and bring more uncertainties to the international arms control and non-proliferation process.

(作者单位:军事科学院战争研究院)

(The author is from the War Research Institute of the PLA Academy of Military Science.)

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